清零乱源,难以收圆;孤家寡人,玩火自焚?

林保华
2022-11-28
image
新疆喀什地区的一个屏幕展示中国国家主席习近平图像。(图片:GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)

中共20大后,习近平的两大主轴是外交出击与防疫降温。目的都是为了挽救经济,因为经济关系到中共统治能否维稳,能不能以大撒币来称霸全球。然而狗改不了吃屎,中共本性不改,习近平红卫兵作风不变,一切将是枉然。

外交出击改以温和面目欺骗了一些西方国家,但也露了一些马脚,假以时日,骗局会被拆穿。然而防疫的病毒不是可以被欺骗的人,它照着自然规律行进,让习近平焦头烂额。习近平以为“党领导一切”,武汉病毒也像武汉人一样可以乖乖成为党的驯服工具,结果却是相反,因为习近平自始至终贯彻错误政策,当然也错过了纠偏的时机。

习近平的错误政策是以为中国人可以生活在真空中而得以清零。这就是因为他的小学程度,不懂何为“真空”,人怎么可能生活在真空中;就如不可能做出“永动机”一样。别人为他代写的博士论文补不了这个漏洞,周围的马屁大小王也没给他补课中学的数理化常识的结果。

西方医学研究显示,这次武汉肺炎,要靠接种疫苗与人的自身抵抗力(尤其染疫后获得的某种程度的免疫力)相结合,达到总人口的一定比例,才能阻止病毒的大扩散,并且使病毒逐渐变种而流感化。然而习近平的狭隘民族主义,也就是义和团的思维,坚决抵制西方疫苗(其实中共高干应该全部打了BNT疫苗才干出国),又用清零政策强行阻止病毒的自然扩散,结果造成大部分中国人缺少应该在与病毒斗争中出现的抗体。这种锁国思维来自毛泽东,毛在晚年有所改过,邓小平更进一步推行改革开放路线,然而始终认为必须由天纵英明的党来领导改革,而非“群众是真正的英雄”,结果改革开放“一放就乱,一收就死”,形成恶性循环,结果酿成六四屠杀基本终结改革开放,后来扭曲为只是经济而没有政治的改革开放。在上层建筑与经济基础脱节的情况下,也势必产生习近平这个文革余孽将两者统一起来,不是进步的统一,而是倒退的统一。

正是这种思维,习近平要将清零降温,在20大后抛出“优化防疫20条”,由政治局常委下令,已经跛脚的国务院推行。虽然在具体政策中有降温措施,例如不许下面基层“层层加码”以减少民怨,然而文件的基本精神仍然是肯定习近平发明的清零政策,而且声色俱厉的要维护它。这样不同干部可以根据自己的需要“各取所需”。例如石家庄放宽,广东则是加码。这样不但无助“纠偏”,反而形成各行其是的全国乱象。例如石家庄11月14日就解封取消全面管控,中小学生恢复实体上课;有些地区玩文字游戏推出“动态管理”仍旧老一套;广东则是出现年轻女郎因为忘了戴口罩出门买东西被反绑当街跪地,郑州的台资富士康则因为招工条例被修改再加上确诊与不确诊者混住一室引发骚乱,结果向要离开的员工每人派送一万元将两万肇事者打发走了才平息骚乱。清零与降温难以左右逢源,如何圆满解决,考验这位孤家寡人的能力。

照理石家庄的做法是顺应世界潮流值得肯定,然而因为原先的清零政策把后期的病毒还描述得那样可怕,所以许多没有翻墙的市民因为不了解世情反而无法接受解封,不敢将子女送到学校上课。而且因为大多数民众缺乏免疫力,导致解封后确诊者大增,例如石家庄大增数倍,赶紧又恢复“静默管理”。然而抗争力量也日益增大,网路推出“十问”,包括世界杯都可以脱口罩比赛观赛,为何中国还要管控?但这些问题立即在网路被删除,表明当局无力回答民众的疑问。重庆市则有反对封控的“超人哥”出现,在街上高喊“这个世界只有一种病,它叫不自由和穷,我们现在全占了,不自由毋宁死”。民众高呼支持,并且帮他逃脱警察的追捕。然而以中共对民众的严密监控,超人哥将与彭立发一样,难逃牢狱之灾。然而,这证明,民众自发的反对封控的运动,将逐渐发展成为自觉的政治运动,将自由民主成为他们争取的目标。

在这同时,还出现乌鲁木齐的悲剧。过往因为过分的封控导致次生的死亡事件多是单一的个人事件,包括其他疾病因失救而死,或忍受不了而长期封控而自杀等等,但是乌鲁木齐一栋大楼失火,因为封控影响居民逃离与消防队救火,导致双位数的死亡灾难。

乌鲁木齐的火是不是习近平称帝第一把火,而且这把火还会烧到自身,还得观察日后发展。至少目前习近平还是大权在握,悲剧造成的零星抗争还形成不了燎原大火。对这些乱象与悲剧,以习近平为核心的新时代党中央似乎也在躺平而无计可施。习近平出席APEC后回北京是否染疫不得而知。因为与他有多次紧密接触,甚至就脱口罩坐在他旁边的香港特首李家超一回香港就确诊,不过病情不重。习近平即使染疫也有外国最高级医疗用品保护,不必担心,他却可以以隔离为名躺平。

不过在习近平焦头烂额的时候,台湾反民进党势力在九合一地方选举给习近平注入兴奋剂,证明中共锐实力渗透的成功,得以再度为中华民族伟大复兴而斗争。然而清零导致的数亿民众缺乏抗体,这个黑洞如何跨越不能解决,还谈什么复兴?

(全文转自光传媒)

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