自去年5月工党政府上台后,北京一再释放愿与澳洲和好的信号。在取消了对澳洲的煤炭禁令后,又传出对澳洲龙虾解禁的消息。澳洲前外交官员分析,北京当局很可能借此让澳洲做出一些让步,或寻求澳洲支持中国加入CPTPP。
据澳媒近期报道,澳中两国的贸易部长即将举行三年多来的第一次会议。在贸易方面也出现了积极性进展。几家中国国有企业显然已经获得授权,恢复了对澳大利亚煤炭的采购。而不久前,位于厦门的两家中国最大的海产品进口商的高层管理人员表示,他们正在为可能在5月解除的龙虾禁令做准备。
根据中国驻伯斯领事馆官网,中国驻伯斯总领事龙定斌曾在1月11日,参观位于西澳的“吉龙腾渔民合作有限公司”。同日,中国驻澳大使肖千声称,中澳将恢复正常关系。
澳洲前外交官员Justin Brown 认为,还有待观察的是,中国是否会满足于解除限制而改善双边关系,亦或会要求澳洲作出一些让步以换取解禁。
Brown1月23日在澳洲智库洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)发文提到,肖千曾表示,要完全结束这些限制,还需要 “进一步的善意”,需要双方的一些付出和回报。Brown认为,“这很能说明问题”。
Brown说,澳大利亚的目标是以最低限度的让步来确保取消中国的所有贸易限制。而“一个有趣的问题是,中国是否会利用这个机会寻求澳大利亚的支持(或不反对),以争取加入《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协议》(CPTPP)”。虽然莫里森政府表示,只要贸易壁垒仍然存在,就会阻止中国的申请,但阿尔巴内斯政府在这个问题上的公开语气就略显谨慎。中国很可能以全面恢复澳大利亚的出口为条件,要求澳大利亚对中国的CPTPP申请采取不那么消极的立场。
Brown认为,双方达成结束贸易限制的方案是可以实现的,但这将是对双方善意的考验。
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