美国“红潮”没有再现的原因

王丹
2022-11-18
image
美国中期选举的结果在大部分州会于11月8日当晚决出,但全部结果将要到12月初才能完结。图为万众瞩目的美国中期选举,是美国共和党(红)和民主党(蓝)的全方位角逐。(图片来源:Adobe Stock)

美国期中选举大局已定,与外界选前预期“红潮再现”相比,共和党选得很差,不仅没有拿下参议院,而且在众议院领先的幅度很小。对比总统拜登的低民调和人民对通货膨胀等经济状况的普遍不满,共和党选成这样,甚至可以说是输了。为什么声势浩大的“红潮”并未出现?我认为有几个原因:

首先,选前外界对共和党会大胜的期待本来就太高,尤其是媒体的各种民调,惊人地一致认为红潮到来。我没有证据,所以不敢说这是媒体故意的,或者是民主党操作的结果,但显然,共和党自身过于乐观的情绪在客观上,的确影会响到一些共和党选民。他们认为已经赢定了,所以没有必要出门投票。

其次,由于共和党声势太大,且志得意满,一些竞选语言中,有些话讲得太早了,例如要弹劾拜登,要进一步修正以前的自由派立法等等。这样的提早预告惊醒了很多原本无意投票的民主党人和主张“政治正确”的年轻人,包括中间选民在内,很多选民担心共和党掌控两院之后,美国将陷入更严重的党争,国家的前景更是一片混乱。因此,民主党的票在最后关头被催出来了。

第三,川普因素也发挥了作用。选前,川普的态度非常明确,只要共和党大胜,他就一定会宣布竞选2024年总统。而且,所有人都知道,只要共和党大胜,任谁也将无法对川普形成制衡。对川普再选的担心,也是民主党选民,甚至共和党部分温和派选民投票的参考值。必须承认,川普现象历经两年,还是没有完全消退,他的一举一动,仍旧是很多选民的投票参考指标。

第四,经济问题的确是拜登政府软肋,但面对世界性的衰退,共和党也并未拿出更好的应对措施;一些中间选民会认为,即使共和党上台,也未必能够解决通货膨胀问题。因此,经济问题对民主党选情的打击力度,比选前的预期低了很多;

第五,毫无疑问,最高法院关于堕胎权问题的裁决也的确产生了影响,很多自由派和中间派选民,担心过去几十年民权运动争取到的一些权益,会逐渐被最高法院剥夺,这样的危机感也使得他们不愿意给共和党机会。

选举结束,民主党意外地得到选民的宽容,但他们面临的挑战依旧严重。共和党拿下众议院的多数,根据他们已经有的规划,一定会对拜登启动弹劾调查的事由,包括了拜登次子杭特‧拜登的生意往来、美国自阿富汗撤军。共和党如果要成功弹劾拜登,当然不会过关,但是对拜登来说压力很大;尤其是杭特的问题,可以说是铁板钉钉的事情。一旦杭特受到法律制裁,拜登颜面全无。同时,治安和民生问题是人民不满的主要原因,虽然看来选民愿意再给民主党机会。可是真的能解决吗?目前看不出来。

值得注意的是,众议院共和党领袖麦卡锡(Kevin McCarthy)成为众院议长后,美国国会对中国的态度将更强硬。麦卡锡上月向福斯新闻表示:五十年来,中国共产党对美国的生活方式、经济、工作、公司、文化、制度和我们的未来发起攻击。带著这样的立场,拜登即使想缓和美中对峙,可能性也不会太大。

(全文转自上报)

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