美国期中选举大局已定，与外界选前预期“红潮再现”相比，共和党选得很差，不仅没有拿下参议院，而且在众议院领先的幅度很小。对比总统拜登的低民调和人民对通货膨胀等经济状况的普遍不满，共和党选成这样，甚至可以说是输了。为什么声势浩大的“红潮”并未出现？我认为有几个原因：
首先，选前外界对共和党会大胜的期待本来就太高，尤其是媒体的各种民调，惊人地一致认为红潮到来。我没有证据，所以不敢说这是媒体故意的，或者是民主党操作的结果，但显然，共和党自身过于乐观的情绪在客观上，的确影会响到一些共和党选民。他们认为已经赢定了，所以没有必要出门投票。
其次，由于共和党声势太大，且志得意满，一些竞选语言中，有些话讲得太早了，例如要弹劾拜登，要进一步修正以前的自由派立法等等。这样的提早预告惊醒了很多原本无意投票的民主党人和主张“政治正确”的年轻人，包括中间选民在内，很多选民担心共和党掌控两院之后，美国将陷入更严重的党争，国家的前景更是一片混乱。因此，民主党的票在最后关头被催出来了。
第三，川普因素也发挥了作用。选前，川普的态度非常明确，只要共和党大胜，他就一定会宣布竞选2024年总统。而且，所有人都知道，只要共和党大胜，任谁也将无法对川普形成制衡。对川普再选的担心，也是民主党选民，甚至共和党部分温和派选民投票的参考值。必须承认，川普现象历经两年，还是没有完全消退，他的一举一动，仍旧是很多选民的投票参考指标。
第四，经济问题的确是拜登政府软肋，但面对世界性的衰退，共和党也并未拿出更好的应对措施；一些中间选民会认为，即使共和党上台，也未必能够解决通货膨胀问题。因此，经济问题对民主党选情的打击力度，比选前的预期低了很多；
第五，毫无疑问，最高法院关于堕胎权问题的裁决也的确产生了影响，很多自由派和中间派选民，担心过去几十年民权运动争取到的一些权益，会逐渐被最高法院剥夺，这样的危机感也使得他们不愿意给共和党机会。
选举结束，民主党意外地得到选民的宽容，但他们面临的挑战依旧严重。共和党拿下众议院的多数，根据他们已经有的规划，一定会对拜登启动弹劾调查的事由，包括了拜登次子杭特‧拜登的生意往来、美国自阿富汗撤军。共和党如果要成功弹劾拜登，当然不会过关，但是对拜登来说压力很大；尤其是杭特的问题，可以说是铁板钉钉的事情。一旦杭特受到法律制裁，拜登颜面全无。同时，治安和民生问题是人民不满的主要原因，虽然看来选民愿意再给民主党机会。可是真的能解决吗？目前看不出来。
值得注意的是，众议院共和党领袖麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy）成为众院议长后，美国国会对中国的态度将更强硬。麦卡锡上月向福斯新闻表示：五十年来，中国共产党对美国的生活方式、经济、工作、公司、文化、制度和我们的未来发起攻击。带著这样的立场，拜登即使想缓和美中对峙，可能性也不会太大。
（全文转自上报）
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