民进党是为何输成这样──2022地方选举系列之一

上报主笔室
2022-11-27
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中央一党独大的优势,使得民进党的公职与支持者持续“内卷化”而不自知。(图片摘自陈时中脸书)

有了2018年九合一选举惨败的经验,这次民进党再败对民进党人的冲击,感觉似乎不若4年前来得大。事实上,选前的民调科学数据就是输,只是蔡英文的施政满意度一直维持得不错,对手也没有如4年前韩国瑜那般明星级的候选人带领,操盘者一直想“冲冲看”,希望蔡英文的支持度能够移转给党籍提名人,但很显然,一切事与愿违。

表面上来看,蓝绿得票数与得票率比起四年前近100万票,将近10%(39%比49%),这次的差距有略微缩小,但是在新北市与台中市,在投票率普遍下降情况下,票数差距却更大。其中,新北上次输29万票,这次输了45万票,台中上次输20万票,这次输了28万票。但如果再进一步分析,侯友宜与卢秀燕的票数比起四年前都没有任何增长,甚至还稍稍下滑,关键是民进党的票数滑落更多。这意思是,民进党的支持者不见了,不仅远远少于2020年总统大选,在条件相近的情况下(面对同一个候选人),甚至还不如2018年惨败时的状况。

败选的原因很多,最重要的原因是,一向靠议题打选战的民进党竟然从头到尾都没有议题。民进党原本打算以陈时中台北市为领头羊,将这场选举定义为过去两年防疫成绩的信任投票;不过,国民党早有备而来,先以凶猛的炮火困住陈时中,使其不见任何外溢效应,影响所及,也错过了检验侯友宜与卢秀燕这国民党两大诸侯的机会。

不同于总统大选里的政党取向投票方式,地方选举里的候选人条件更为重要。当候选人轮来轮去就是几张老面孔,政党又无法以鲜明的议题设定领导这场选举,就失去号召中间与年轻选民投票的机会。投票结果显示,陈时中在台北市的年轻选票完全被黄珊珊分掉,也没得到中间选民的青睐;连高知名度都陈时中都无法脱困,更遑论在新北、台中苦战的林佳龙与蔡其昌。

第二、在这次选举里,民进党在台北安排英系支持的陈时中,新北由正国会的老大林佳龙挂帅,台中则由新潮流的蔡其昌出征,表面上巧妙地平衡了了民进党内的三大派系,但这种以派系平衡为思考的选举布局,很显然忽略了选民的需要。年轻人也要问:当43岁的蒋万安已经挂帅角逐首都市长,民进党的年轻人在哪里?

尤其在派系完全主导个别候选人的选战布局后,不同的思维与战术布局就无法进入到候选人团队。选民看不到昔日民进党破釜沈舟一定要赢的决心,却看到这种老大僵固的心态几乎与坐地分赃无异;若说中央大选因为有“抗中保台”的光环罩著民进党,让选民难以不支持它,如今不趁这地方选举好好惩罚民进党,更待何时?

第三、中央一党独大的优势,使得民进党的公职与支持者持续“内卷化”而不自知。表现在选举上,就是支持者过于乐观,例如集体出征高嘉瑜与王世坚这两位“说话不中听”的公职,甚至要求党中央开除俩人党籍;结果,王世坚竟成为台北市中山大同区第一高票当选的市议员,还因此挤下表现极为优异的梁文杰。

这种“内卷化”的现象也表现在高虹安的议题上。事实上,当高虹安的新闻连篇累牍地出现在媒体之时,已有不少人担心这不但“打高”了高红安,也挤压其他该被讨论监督的议题(诸如卢秀燕的“空气”支票,侯友宜的恩恩案以及蒋万安父亲章孝严的中国关系)。但这种绿营名嘴与支持者的内卷现象,其实又与民进党无力设定议题互为因果,到最后整个党失去正常的选战节奏,只能乱枪打鸟;被名嘴与键盘侠推著走,这应该是民进党有史以来打选战的第一次。

民进党败选的原因有很多,最不需要的是去检讨选民,说什么选民“挺贪污”、“不在意政绩”、“这是对选民的智力测验”,那些话只会继续惹怒你要争取的选民。“人民的选择永远是对的,如果你认为人民的选择可能出错,就请你再看一次人民的选择。”4年前,《上报》社评曾经这样提醒民进党;4年后,民进党再度遭逢惨败,这段话对他们依然贴切。

(全文转自上报)

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