有了2018年九合一选举惨败的经验，这次民进党再败对民进党人的冲击，感觉似乎不若4年前来得大。事实上，选前的民调科学数据就是输，只是蔡英文的施政满意度一直维持得不错，对手也没有如4年前韩国瑜那般明星级的候选人带领，操盘者一直想“冲冲看”，希望蔡英文的支持度能够移转给党籍提名人，但很显然，一切事与愿违。
表面上来看，蓝绿得票数与得票率比起四年前近100万票，将近10％（39%比49%），这次的差距有略微缩小，但是在新北市与台中市，在投票率普遍下降情况下，票数差距却更大。其中，新北上次输29万票，这次输了45万票，台中上次输20万票，这次输了28万票。但如果再进一步分析，侯友宜与卢秀燕的票数比起四年前都没有任何增长，甚至还稍稍下滑，关键是民进党的票数滑落更多。这意思是，民进党的支持者不见了，不仅远远少于2020年总统大选，在条件相近的情况下（面对同一个候选人），甚至还不如2018年惨败时的状况。
败选的原因很多，最重要的原因是，一向靠议题打选战的民进党竟然从头到尾都没有议题。民进党原本打算以陈时中台北市为领头羊，将这场选举定义为过去两年防疫成绩的信任投票；不过，国民党早有备而来，先以凶猛的炮火困住陈时中，使其不见任何外溢效应，影响所及，也错过了检验侯友宜与卢秀燕这国民党两大诸侯的机会。
不同于总统大选里的政党取向投票方式，地方选举里的候选人条件更为重要。当候选人轮来轮去就是几张老面孔，政党又无法以鲜明的议题设定领导这场选举，就失去号召中间与年轻选民投票的机会。投票结果显示，陈时中在台北市的年轻选票完全被黄珊珊分掉，也没得到中间选民的青睐；连高知名度都陈时中都无法脱困，更遑论在新北、台中苦战的林佳龙与蔡其昌。
第二、在这次选举里，民进党在台北安排英系支持的陈时中，新北由正国会的老大林佳龙挂帅，台中则由新潮流的蔡其昌出征，表面上巧妙地平衡了了民进党内的三大派系，但这种以派系平衡为思考的选举布局，很显然忽略了选民的需要。年轻人也要问：当43岁的蒋万安已经挂帅角逐首都市长，民进党的年轻人在哪里？
尤其在派系完全主导个别候选人的选战布局后，不同的思维与战术布局就无法进入到候选人团队。选民看不到昔日民进党破釜沈舟一定要赢的决心，却看到这种老大僵固的心态几乎与坐地分赃无异；若说中央大选因为有“抗中保台”的光环罩著民进党，让选民难以不支持它，如今不趁这地方选举好好惩罚民进党，更待何时？
第三、中央一党独大的优势，使得民进党的公职与支持者持续“内卷化”而不自知。表现在选举上，就是支持者过于乐观，例如集体出征高嘉瑜与王世坚这两位“说话不中听”的公职，甚至要求党中央开除俩人党籍；结果，王世坚竟成为台北市中山大同区第一高票当选的市议员，还因此挤下表现极为优异的梁文杰。
这种“内卷化”的现象也表现在高虹安的议题上。事实上，当高虹安的新闻连篇累牍地出现在媒体之时，已有不少人担心这不但“打高”了高红安，也挤压其他该被讨论监督的议题（诸如卢秀燕的“空气”支票，侯友宜的恩恩案以及蒋万安父亲章孝严的中国关系）。但这种绿营名嘴与支持者的内卷现象，其实又与民进党无力设定议题互为因果，到最后整个党失去正常的选战节奏，只能乱枪打鸟；被名嘴与键盘侠推著走，这应该是民进党有史以来打选战的第一次。
民进党败选的原因有很多，最不需要的是去检讨选民，说什么选民“挺贪污”、“不在意政绩”、“这是对选民的智力测验”，那些话只会继续惹怒你要争取的选民。“人民的选择永远是对的，如果你认为人民的选择可能出错，就请你再看一次人民的选择。”4年前，《上报》社评曾经这样提醒民进党；4年后，民进党再度遭逢惨败，这段话对他们依然贴切。
（全文转自上报）
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