赴台参访随笔:岁月静好的台湾人有点太天真

夏言
2022-11-21
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台湾228纪念塔 (图:看传媒)

作为媒体人有幸应邀参访台湾,了解民间的想法是必不可少的环节。在对岸时刻都会发动战争的当下,台湾安全自然应该成为所有话题的重中之重。但如果你从南到北、从底层到中央参访一遍,不难发现,台湾人似乎完全处于两耳不闻“岛外事”,依然陶醉在“岁月这边独好”的浪漫色彩之中。

或许是为了避免争执等原因,民主环境下的台湾人不爱公开谈论政治,对于蓝绿之争更是三缄其口。于是我的专访对象基本以计程车司机为主,在我眼里,这个群体不但接触过的人特别多,还不会太在乎说话的对象是谁,因为在其一生中唯一与乘客相处的时间就是从上车到下车。计程车司机的意见成为我民意数据的主要来源。

无论计程车行驶在台湾哪一个城镇,都能遇到参政候选人的巨幅宣传广告牌,司机说,这是在迎接“九合一”选举,这也是我每次采访的切入点。我的采访内容主要围绕几个方面,令人惊讶的是每位被访人员的回答大同小异,基本一致,蓝味很浓。

台湾人对政府的满意度非常高,至少8成以上吧,都认为当下比过去好,当然百姓眼里的政府主要是指地方政府,他们并不在乎是蓝还是绿,他们更在乎的是谁能让百姓的生活变得更好。

他们告诉我,台湾早已不存在外省与本土的说法,每个人都在台湾土生土长,大家都是台湾人,深爱台湾。台湾的民族主义色彩还是挺浓厚的。

我发现,台湾的双十晚会与国庆典礼均充分地展示了这一点,典型的台湾文化贯彻始终,看不到任何大陆元素的影子,唯一外来的演出团队是日本的橘色高校吹奏乐团。台湾人认为,台湾文化包含著强烈的日本文明。

在这个言论绝对自由的土地上,台湾人普遍对中共心存幻想,他们认为中国虽然专制,但经济发展比台湾快,工资收入也上升很快,相反台湾的收入却上升缓慢。中国在经济建设方面的发展几乎让每一个台湾人感叹。他们都不希望出现“一国两制”,却认为“一国两制”没有战争恐怖。

说起收入,我发现台湾人的普遍收入是每月4万新台币以上,接近1万人民币吧。而大陆年轻人目前也都以追求每月1万人民币为基本的生存线。

我询问了参访团的一些台湾老侨,1989年时,台湾是怎样的收入?答案是2万5千新台币左右,接近6千人民币。也就是说,在33年中,工资涨幅是:37%。

1989年的时候,我在上海一家研究单位做产品设计工作,我每月的基本工资加奖金只有100人民币,也就是440新台币,在33年中,大陆毕业生的工资上涨了近100倍。

在89六四屠杀后,邓小平被迫以发展经济来平息社会对党的不满,开启了所谓的“改革开放”的大门,就好比朝饥饿的百姓群里仍一筐肉包子,人们都在激烈的争夺中快速忘记血腥伤痛,走过无数次运动的邓小平懂得人性弱点。中国的崛起与发展确实把一部分中国人从“一穷二白”的生活圈内解救出来,但对于从未感受过月薪只有440新台币的台湾人有必要为此羡慕吗?

中国人的收入比例是国家机密,李克强总理不小心透露出当下六亿百姓的月收入依然是1000人民币。如果丰衣足食的台湾人生活在中国大陆,谁能保证自己不在那六亿群体中呢?

另外,台湾人对中共试图武力入侵很不以为然,他们几乎把它看作一个笑话,普遍认为只要维持现状,中共不会发动战争,何况美国在看场等等。

 “真的打过来,台湾最多只能守住七天,老百姓都上战场也没用。”台湾人说。“中共武力威胁是因为中共不喜欢蔡总统。”

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,台湾媒体曾公布了一个民意调查,称如果两岸开战,只有49%的台湾人愿意上战场,我当时认为这数字低得有点不现实,台湾人应该不会轻易放弃来自不易的民主台湾的。但此次台湾之行后,我发现那个民意数字偏高了,台湾人在整体上缺乏保家卫国的信心。

尽管美澳日均表达了“不会漠视台湾遭受侵略”之类的警告,但没有一个政府保证,当台湾面临危险时,一定出兵解救台湾。在当今的民主大环境里,民意决定了一切,如果台湾的民意整体没有保卫台湾而坚守到底的决心,那西方强国凭什么要消耗巨大国力去营救台湾这只大熊猫呢?

11月26日是台湾“九合一”选举日,选举口号有点不择手段,什么“投票民进党,青年上战场;投票国民党,两岸无战场”,这种不负责任的宣传多多少少会让选民误以为真。蔡英文不畏强权的坚定立场正赢得世界的尊重,却遭到政治对手的无情打击,台湾人的天真令人担忧。

对岸试图改变现状只是时间与机会,要想两岸无战场只有两种可能,其一,2千4百万台湾人的抗侵略决心感召世界全力支援,并震慑侵略者的野心。其二,台湾人放弃抵抗,迎接五星红旗插上台北总统府。

15-11-2022

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