中国人大和政协两会应在三月初召开,这将是中共总书记习近平废除国家主席任期不得超过两届制度以后,第三次出任国家主席。习近平破除党规连任总书记也即将百日,这段日子遭遇的挑战不小。
习近平20大连任总书记后,3月份续任国家主席只不过是走走过场。但表面文章还需要做,19日,新华社发出一条通稿,称“习近平全票当选”第十四届全国人大代表,党国体制下,人大本是橡皮图章,因此有“举手机器”之称,但新华社的通稿把习近平当选人大代表这件普通的事说得煞有介事,好像很不容易:江苏省的“代表们怀着无比激动的心情,共同见证了这一历史性时刻”。“习近平总书记全票当选全国人大代表,是800多名江苏省人大代表的共同心愿,体现了8500万江苏儿女的衷心拥戴,凝聚着14亿多全国各族人民紧跟伟大复兴领航人奋力开创美好未来的坚定信心。”
今年两会似乎无大事,但习近平二十大连任后这段时间并不平顺,他的坚决清零不动摇在人民抗议下被迫放弃,作为最高党魁,他也是1949年以来首位被人民指名道姓在街头喊着要求下台的总书记。现在,即使在他自己的讲话中,都不能直截了当地使用他使用了无数遍的“清零”二字,在18日视频连线慰问“全国人民”的活动中,习近平表情凝重、以比较专业的术语“乙类甲管”为“清零政策”辩护,称近三年对新冠疫情“严格实行乙类甲管是“正确选择”,称这样做为实施”乙类乙管”赢得了宝贵时间。至于12月以来染疫人数爆炸性增长,死亡人数从官方确认的十余人,在世卫组织屡屡批评下,骤然上升为近六万人死的悲惨局面一句不提,而六万人死于新冠,不仅国外的专业机构、世卫组织也不太相信,从社交网络透露的信息看,许多中国民众也不相信,因为他们身边的亲友或者熟人中间都发生了死于新冠疫情的悲剧。也就是说,习近平二十大荣登绝顶后,并没有能够按照其预想的在一个他认定的合适的时间庆祝清零取得了伟大的胜利,以至于清零二字现在在官方语言里变得相当地忌讳。
新年伊始,又传来了两个不好的消息,一个是中国人口萎缩,六零年代大饥饿以来人口增长首次出现负数,这件事从长远看,对中国的未来来说是相当地严峻,专家认为,人口下降通常与经济衰退相关,人口每下降一个百分点,经济增长就会下降约一个百分点,中国将很快成为一个老人社会。人口萎缩不知在多大程度上与严酷的清零有关,但中共力行几十年的计划生育逃不脱干系。
另外一个消息就是2022年经济增长仅为3%,远远低于年初制定的5.5%的经济增长目标,一些专家分析,中国的经济增长从短期而言,或有不小幅度反弹的可能,但从长远看,尤其与人口萎缩的进程加在一起看,问题将十分复杂。美国之音报道说,美国威斯康星大学研究员、人口学专家易富贤预计中国65岁或以上的人口比例到2050年将高达37%,而65岁及以上的人口比例去年只有14%,1980年仅为5%。由于出生率持续下滑,中国的劳动人口根本无法得到补充。他认为:“快速老龄化正在拖累中国经济,降低收入,增加政府债务…中国在变富之前已经先变老”。
不过,对中共总书记习近平而言,当务之急似乎是近在咫尺的“两会”,除了他本人“当选”全国人大代表,还有一位当选的是国务院常务副总理、68岁的韩正。 韩正如同总理李克强、政协主席汪洋,本已在二十大出局,但与李克强、汪洋不同的是,韩正成为全国人大代表。香港星岛日报援引消息称,准备退休的中共领导人不会安排为全国人大代表,比如现任总理李克强,这显示韩正还将有重用,该报分析,韩正深获习近平信任,将循“王岐山模式”担任国家副主席。不过,国家副主席角色可轻可重,习近平在接班前曾担任过,王岐山曾因襄助习近平反腐有功,卸任常委后担任国家副主席,有“第八常委”之称,但这位有“救火队长”之称的王岐山,后来似乎渐渐被边缘化,成为专管礼仪事务的副主席。
另外,习近平的笔杆子、发明“习近平中国特色社会主义思想”的现任常委王沪宁名列新一届全国政协委员名单,在3月份接替汪洋担任全国政协主席应属无疑,“从事大统战工作”。政协虽然视为“花瓶”,美国之音则分析,习近平安排亲信王沪宁去政协把关,是为了不断巩固极权。
不过,曾被胡锦涛隔代制定接班人的胡春华,二十大不但未进入常委会,连政治局委员都没有保住,却也出现在政协名单上,港媒预计他会担任政协副主席。
从两会代表的安排可以看出,二十大出局的国务院总理李克强与政协主席汪洋,已进入提前卸任阶段,胡春华即便担任政协副主席,大约也是陪衬的角色,团派从此彻底进入历史。
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