中國人大和政協兩會應在三月初召開，這將是中共總書記習近平廢除國家主席任期不得超過兩屆制度以後，第三次出任國家主席。習近平破除黨規連任總書記也即將百日，這段日子遭遇的挑戰不小。
習近平20大連任總書記後，3月份續任國家主席只不過是走走過場。但表面文章還需要做，19日，新華社發出一條通稿，稱「習近平全票當選」第十四屆全國人大代表，黨國體制下，人大本是橡皮圖章，因此有「舉手機器」之稱，但新華社的通稿把習近平當選人大代表這件普通的事說得煞有介事，好像很不容易：江蘇省的「代表們懷着無比激動的心情，共同見證了這一歷史性時刻」。「習近平總書記全票當選全國人大代表，是800多名江蘇省人大代表的共同心愿，體現了8500萬江蘇兒女的衷心擁戴，凝聚着14億多全國各族人民緊跟偉大復興領航人奮力開創美好未來的堅定信心。」
今年兩會似乎無大事，但習近平二十大連任後這段時間並不平順，他的堅決清零不動搖在人民抗議下被迫放棄，作為最高黨魁，他也是1949年以來首位被人民指名道姓在街頭喊着要求下台的總書記。現在，即使在他自己的講話中，都不能直截了當地使用他使用了無數遍的「清零」二字，在18日視頻連線慰問「全國人民」的活動中，習近平表情凝重、以比較專業的術語「乙類甲管」為「清零政策」辯護，稱近三年對新冠疫情「嚴格實行乙類甲管是「正確選擇」，稱這樣做為實施」乙類乙管」贏得了寶貴時間。至於12月以來染疫人數爆炸性增長，死亡人數從官方確認的十餘人，在世衛組織屢屢批評下，驟然上升為近六萬人死的悲慘局面一句不提，而六萬人死於新冠，不僅國外的專業機構、世衛組織也不太相信，從社交網絡透露的信息看，許多中國民眾也不相信，因為他們身邊的親友或者熟人中間都發生了死於新冠疫情的悲劇。也就是說，習近平二十大榮登絕頂後，並沒有能夠按照其預想的在一個他認定的合適的時間慶祝清零取得了偉大的勝利，以至於清零二字現在在官方語言裡變得相當地忌諱。
新年伊始，又傳來了兩個不好的消息，一個是中國人口萎縮，六零年代大飢餓以來人口增長首次出現負數，這件事從長遠看，對中國的未來來說是相當地嚴峻，專家認為，人口下降通常與經濟衰退相關，人口每下降一個百分點，經濟增長就會下降約一個百分點，中國將很快成為一個老人社會。人口萎縮不知在多大程度上與嚴酷的清零有關，但中共力行幾十年的計劃生育逃不脫干係。
另外一個消息就是2022年經濟增長僅為3%，遠遠低於年初制定的5.5%的經濟增長目標，一些專家分析，中國的經濟增長從短期而言，或有不小幅度反彈的可能，但從長遠看，尤其與人口萎縮的進程加在一起看，問題將十分複雜。美國之音報道說，美國威斯康星大學研究員、人口學專家易富賢預計中國65歲或以上的人口比例到2050年將高達37%，而65歲及以上的人口比例去年只有14%，1980年僅為5%。由於出生率持續下滑，中國的勞動人口根本無法得到補充。他認為：「快速老齡化正在拖累中國經濟，降低收入，增加政府債務…中國在變富之前已經先變老」。
不過，對中共總書記習近平而言，當務之急似乎是近在咫尺的「兩會」，除了他本人「當選」全國人大代表，還有一位當選的是國務院常務副總理、68歲的韓正。 韓正如同總理李克強、政協主席汪洋，本已在二十大出局，但與李克強、汪洋不同的是，韓正成為全國人大代表。香港星島日報援引消息稱，準備退休的中共領導人不會安排為全國人大代表，比如現任總理李克強，這顯示韓正還將有重用，該報分析，韓正深獲習近平信任，將循「王岐山模式」擔任國家副主席。不過，國家副主席角色可輕可重，習近平在接班前曾擔任過，王岐山曾因襄助習近平反腐有功，卸任常委後擔任國家副主席，有「第八常委」之稱，但這位有「救火隊長」之稱的王岐山，後來似乎漸漸被邊緣化，成為專管禮儀事務的副主席。
另外，習近平的筆桿子、發明「習近平中國特色社會主義思想」的現任常委王滬寧名列新一屆全國政協委員名單，在3月份接替汪洋擔任全國政協主席應屬無疑，「從事大統戰工作」。政協雖然視為「花瓶」，美國之音則分析，習近平安排親信王滬寧去政協把關，是為了不斷鞏固極權。
不過，曾被胡錦濤隔代制定接班人的胡春華，二十大不但未進入常委會，連政治局委員都沒有保住，卻也出現在政協名單上，港媒預計他會擔任政協副主席。
從兩會代表的安排可以看出，二十大出局的國務院總理李克強與政協主席汪洋，已進入提前卸任階段，胡春華即便擔任政協副主席，大約也是陪襯的角色，團派從此徹底進入歷史。
本文由看新聞網轉載發布，僅代表原作者或原平台觀點，不代表本網站立場。 看新聞網僅提供信息發布平台，文章或有適當刪改。
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